The economic impact of Edinburgh Airport

The study was commissioned to assess the economic impact of Edinburgh Airport and its growth plans, considering the airport’s current and future importance to the Edinburgh City Region and to Scotland as a whole.

The methodology involved estimating the employment and Gross Value Added (GVA) impact of the airport for 2013, 2020 and 2030, against a 2008 baseline. Estimates are made for two scenarios: a ‘Master Plan Scenario’, which assumes that the airport is able to expand to meets its full potential demand, including the possible development of a second main runway post 2020, as described in the Airport Master Plan; and a ‘Constrained Scenario’, which sees the airport constrained to maximum use of its existing infrastructure. The research drew on a survey of companies on-site at the airport in February and March 2009; the results of the 2007 Employer Travel Survey undertaken for BAA Edinburgh; information on multipliers for the air transport sector from the Scottish Government; and assumptions relating to productivity growth at the airport.

The study estimates that, if the airport is able to develop as proposed in the Master Plan, the number of jobs supported in the Edinburgh City Region will rise to around 12,790 (full time equivalents (ftes) and to around 16,040 ftes in Scotland in 2030. The airport would make a corresponding contribution to GVA of around £702.3 million per annum in the Edinburgh City Region and £867.2 million of GVA per annum in Scotland as a whole. Adjusting for displacement effects, the net additional impact of the Master Plan in 2030 is estimated to be around £160.5 million of GVA per annum and 1,820 ftes in the City Region and between £138.3 million and £553.3 million of GVA per annum and between 2,190 ftes and 8,760 ftes across Scotland as a whole. It is estimated that, after adjustment for displacement, construction related to the Master Plan would support around £159.6 million of GVA and around 830 ftes in the Edinburgh City Region. Across Scotland, the investment would support around £414.9 million of GVA and 1,130 ftes over the lifetime of the Master Plan. A cost benefit analysis indicated that the economic benefits associated with development in line with the Master Plan outweigh the costs of construction and the carbon costs associated with expansion.

No recommendations are made.